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March 18, 2024 - Consumers have been feeling positive about buying and selling since the start of the year, and the latest housing market report released by C.A.R. reflected the improvement in optimism. Both supply and demand increased in February and the competitiveness of the market appeared to be heating up as we entered the spring homebuying season. With the inflation data coming in stronger than expected in the past couple of weeks, rates began to trend up again, which could create some headwinds for homebuyers in the near term. While the market may see more moderate sales in March, housing demand should pick back up in the later part of the home buying season as inflation shows more signs of easing and rates begin to trend down again. Housing supply shows further improvement but could slow in weeks ahead: Active listings at the state level increased on a year-over year basis for the first time in 11 months, and the increase for the current month was the largest in 12 months – an encouraging sign that housing supply could be heading in the right direction as the market approaches the spring homebuying season. Newly listed for-sale properties also increased from a year ago for the second consecutive month by double digits as more sellers put their homes up for sale. The recent rising trend in mortgage rates, however, could slow the flow of supply in coming weeks as potential sellers hold off on putting their house up on the market until rates moderate again. California home sales reach highest level in 17 months: Home sales in California continued to improve in February with the statewide existing single-family home sales reaching a level last seen in September 2022, as momentum started by the decline in mortgage rates at year-end got carried over to February. Sales of existing single-family homes in California totaled 290,020 in February, up 12.8% from 257,040 in January and up 1.3% from 286,290 recorded 12 months ago. Pending sales at the state level slipped back down by -2.6% in February after recording its first year-over-year gain since May 2021, as mortgage rates rose to the highest level in two months. With rates rising throughout the month of February, the growth pace of closed sales could slow in March before picking back up in the later part of the home buying season. Median price dips from the prior month but registers another annual gain in January: The statewide median price registered a strong year-over-year gain in February. California recorded a median home price of $806,490 last month, up 2.2% from $789,480 in January and up 9.7% from $735,300 in February 2023. The near-double-digits year-over-year gain was the eighth straight month of annual price increases for the Golden State. It was also the tenth time in the last 11 months that the median price of an existing single-family home exceeded $800,000. While tighter housing supply was the primary reason for the increase in home prices, more higher-priced housing units being sold was also another factor for the strong surge in price growth in February. Consumer inflation tops expectations for the second straight month: The latest inflation data came in slightly higher than anticipated, with the February headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) registering an increase of 0.4% month-over-month and an increase of 3.2% year-over-year. Economists generally expected last month’s index to climb 0.3% and 3.1%, respectively. The headline CPI was fueled by the jump in gasoline prices, which surged 3.8% month-over-month but remained down 3.9% from last year. Shelter costs continued to prop up inflation but cooled last month with owner’s equivalent rent growth up “only” 0.4% month-over-month, a slower pace than the 0.6% jump recorded in January. The Core CPI – inflation excluding food and energy – dipped slightly on an annual basis in February, with the index registering a 3.8% gain from 12 months ago. The index also came in higher than the 3.7% predicted by economists and it was the second straight month of firmer-than-expected inflation. The price stickiness reflected in the latest report will likely reinforce the Federal Reserve’s strategy of staying put and not rushing to cut rates in the upcoming meeting. Retail sales bounce back in February: Consumer spending bounced back in February with an increase of 0.6% month-over-month, after dropping a revised 1.1% in January. On a year-over-year basis, retail sales increased 1.5% last month after staying flat in January. Higher gas prices and auto sales lifted sales in February, but a rebound of building material and gardening equipment also pushed consumer spending up last month. “Food services and drinking places” continued to contribute to overall consumer spending, with sales up 0.4% month-over-month. The sharp monthly increase in retail sales is the fastest pace in the last five months and suggests that consumers are still not ready to pull back completely yet. The downward revision to January’s sales, on the other hand, implies that retail sales are moderating and could slow down further later this year. Consumers will continue to shop - even with a bit more constraint and hesitancy - if the labor market remains sturdy. Note: The weekly market minute report is updated every Monday by 6:00 PM PST.
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